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EBSCO Publishing : eBook Academic Collection (EBSCOhost) – printed on 2/22/2021 6:43 PM via UNIVERSITY OF THE
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AN: 359509 ; Olsen, Steven, National Academy of Engineering (U.S.).; Global Technology : Changes and Implications:
Summary of a Forum
Account: s8501869

Prepared by Steve Olson
for the

GLOBAL
TECHNOLOGY

S U M M A R Y O F A F O R U M

Changes and Implications

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The subject of this report is the forum held during the 2010 Annual Meeting
of the National Academy of Engineering.

Opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the forum
participants and not necessarily the views of the National Academy of Engineering.

International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-18504-2
International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-18504-1

Copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street,
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Copyright 2011 by the National Academies. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon
the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a
mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical
matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the
National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.
The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy
of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences
to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina-
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responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to
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1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s
purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become
the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the
National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by
both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M.
Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

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Engineers know what they mean by the word technology. They mean
the things engineers conceive, design, build, and deploy. But what does
the word global in the phrase global technology mean? Does it mean
finding a way to feed, clothe, house, and otherwise serve the 9 billion
people who will soon live on the planet? Does it mean competing with
companies around the world to build and sell products and services? On
a more immediate and practical level, can the rise of global technology
be expected to create or destroy U.S. jobs?

A fascinating three-hour forum exploring these and related ques-
tions was held at the annual meeting of the National Academy of Engi-
neering on October 4, 2010. The format of the forum was both simple
and effective: we brought together seven extremely smart people and
let them talk. Each brought a fascinating and unique perspective to
the topic.

Esko Aho, executive vice president of corporate relations and
responsibility at Nokia, spoke about the necessary ingredients that
enable countries to be successful in an interconnected and technologi-
cally sophisticated world. Esko, who became prime minister of Finland
when he was just 37 years old, deserves substantial credit for helping to
make Finland a high-tech powerhouse.

Bernard Amadei, professor of civil engineering at the University of
Colorado, discussed the responsibility of engineers to address the needs
of all people in the world, not just those in the richest countries. Bernard
is the founder of Engineers Without Borders-USA and Engineers With-
out Borders-International, a network of engineers from around the
world who share knowledge and solve problems. These organizations
have inspired many thousands of young people worldwide to share

Preface

�

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�i PREFACE

their knowledge and talents with people in less developed countries to
improve their quality of life.

John Seely Brown, visiting scholar and advisor to the provost at the
University of Southern California and for nearly two decades the direc-
tor of the Xerox Corporation’s legendary Palo Alto Research Center,
talked about how young people are changing the world through their
use of technology. John—or JSB, as he is often called—has given himself
the title “Chief of Confusion,” yet his remarks were anything but confus-
ing. He provided remarkable insights into what it will mean to live in a
world where people are linked together and doing things in ways that
were previously unimagined.

Ruth David, president and chief executive officer of Analytic Ser-
vices Inc. and a former deputy director for science and technology at
the Central Intelligence Agency, analyzed the rapid recent expansion
of the scientific and engineering research workforce around the world.
The United States still leads in many measures of science and technology
expertise and productivity, but other countries are narrowing the gap,
which creates both challenges and opportunities for the United States.

Eric Haseltine, a consultant in management and innovation and for
many years a leader of Disney Imagineering, discussed engineering in

NAE President Charles M. Vest and forum panelists.

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PREFACE �ii

a world where the boundaries of space and time are disappearing. The
former associate director for science and technology in the Office of
the Director of National Intelligence, Eric has an ideal background for
observing global trends in science and technology.

Nicholas Negroponte, who with Jerome Wiesner co-founded the
famous Media Lab at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),
described his work with the One Laptop per Child Association Inc.
The idea is deceptively simple: What if every child in the world had an
inexpensive low-power laptop connected to the Web? The foundation
has already distributed an astounding number of laptops in countries
around the world, and in the process it is changing how people think
about education and about society.

Raymond Stata, cofounder and chairman of the board of Analog
Devices Inc. and a quintessential American technology-based entre-
preneur, focused on the coming era of systems engineering. Ray came
to the United States to study at MIT, stayed in the country to work,
and cofounded what has become a globally successful company. When
that company was challenged by foreign competitors, he rolled up his
sleeves, spent innumerable hours studying the new world of quality
management, and emerged with a company that was even stronger
than before.

At the end of the forum, I conducted a simple poll of the seven pan-
elists by asking them if globalization of technology is a good thing or a
bad thing. Without hesitation, all responded that it is a good thing. The
spread of technology throughout the world will bring hope and prosper-
ity, but it will also increase complexity and risk. The global challenges
for adequate water, food, health, energy, security, and a livable climate
cannot be overcome by technology alone. But neither can any of them
be overcome without technology.

Charles M. Vest, president
National Academy of Engineering

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Contents

1 Perspectives on Global Technology 1
Engineering for the Other 90 Percent, 1
Global Expansion of the Research Workforce, 3
The Global Youth Movement in Technology, 5
The One Laptop per Child Revolution, 7
The Coming Era of Systems Thinking, 9
Erasing the Boundaries of Space and Time, 12
Becoming a Global Leader, 14

2 Charting a Path into the Future 17
Strategies for Innovation, 17
Avenues of Communication, 20
Integrating Social and Technological Systems, 22
Bandwidth as a Factor in Competition, 23
Changing the Nature of Engineering, 25
Women in Engineering, 26
The Global Engineer, 27

APPENDIXES

A Forum Agenda 29
B Panelists’ Biographies 31

ix

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1

Perspectives on Global Technology

In the first half of the forum, each panelist explored a specific dimen-
sion of the global spread of technology. The topics varied widely—from
reducing poverty to the impact of young people on technology to the
need for systems thinking in engineering. But all seven presenters fore-
saw a world in which engineering will be fundamentally different from
what it has been.

ENGINEERING FOR THE OTHER 90 PERCENT

Many people on Earth are living longer and better lives than ever
before because of engineering. Life expectancy in the United States a
century ago was 47 years. Now it is about 77 years, largely because of
improvements in sanitation, food and water quality, health care, and
other technological systems designed at least in part by engineers.

But the engineering profession has focused largely on the needs of
a relatively small percentage of people, said Bernard Amadei, professor
of civil engineering at the University of Colorado and founder of Engi-
neers Without Borders. Life expectancy in Zambia is only about 32.5
years. Eighteen countries in the world still have a life expectancy of less
than 50 years, and 79 have a life expectancy of less than 70 years. On an
average day, 5,000 people die from indoor air pollution; 5,000 to 10,000
die from inadequate sanitation; 5,000 die from malaria; and comparable
numbers die from tuberculosis and HIV infection. Altogether, Amadei
said, 25,000 to 75,000 people die every day from causes that are clearly
preventable, or as many as 200,000 people per week. That number is
comparable to the death toll from the Haiti earthquake—week after
week, month after month, year after year.

�

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� GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY

Bernard Amadei, founder of Engineers Without Borders and professor of civil engineer-
ing at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Amadei founded Engineers Without Borders to address the needs of
people who work simply to stay alive by the end of the day. The organiza-
tion now has some 12,000 U.S. members, about half of whom are work-
ing in 48 different countries. There are 400 chapters in the United States
alone, some consisting largely of students, others of professionals.

Amadei cited three particular challenges for engineering. The first is
engineering in an emergency. What does engineering look like two hours
after an earthquake, a week after an earthquake, eight months after an
earthquake? How do engineers make the transition from rapid response
to recovery to development to sustainable development? Engineers tend
not to be in the field after emergencies, despite the contributions they
can make to recovery, sanitation, education, and policy. “I was in Haiti
in March. Not a pretty picture. There were 1.6 million people in the
streets of Haiti in March. They are still in the streets of Haiti.”

A second challenge is engineering in native cultures. Engineering
does not necessarily look the same in developing parts of the world
as it does in the developed world. Amadei described an example of
what he called frugal engineering—an engineer in India who devised a

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PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY �

solar-powered electrocardiographic
device that costs $800 and can gen-
erate an electrocardiogram for about
a dollar. “Eight hundred dollars is
pretty much what I would pay if I
would go to Kaiser Permanente for
one EKG in the United States. Here
is an example of frugal engineering.
Your market is 5 billion people.”

Finally, Amadei described the
challenge of engineering in difficult
conditions. Recently he was work-
ing in Peru at an elevation of 14,000 to 15,000 feet. “Try to find water
at 14,000 feet. Try to find energy at 14,000 feet. And yet people live in
these very difficult conditions.”

These three areas of engineering—engineering in emergencies, engi-
neering in native cultures, and engineering in difficult conditions—have
in many ways not yet been invented. But tremendous progress could be
made in each, especially if the efforts of engineers were complemented
by those of doctors, dentists, nurses, teachers, and other professionals.
“There is a huge environment for innovation,” he said, “but we need to
change our mindset.”

GLOBAL EXPANSION OF THE RESEARCH WORKFORCE

In recent years, there has been a major global increase in the number
of people engaged in scientific and technological research. According to
the 2010 Science and Technology Indicators, the research workforce in
the United States and Europe grew by about 35 percent. In China and
several other countries, the research workforce doubled.1

Three factors have contributed to the rapid expansion of the sci-
entific and technological workforce, said Ruth David, president and
chief executive officer of Analytic Services Inc. First, greater access to
information through digital technologies has enabled people all over the
world to build more rapidly on the collective knowledge of the science
and engineering communities. Second, greater access to people has
made it possible to forge networks and collaborations without regard to

1 National Science Board. 2010. Science and Technology Indicators �0�0. Arlington, Va.: National
Science Foundation.

Engineering in emergencies,
engineering in native cultures,
and engineering in extreme or
very difficult conditions—have
in many ways not yet been
invented. “There is a huge
environment for innovation,
but we need to change our
mindset.”

Bernard Amadei

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� GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY

geographic boundaries. Third,
greater access to computing has
put the power of supercomput-
ers on a desktop, and the advent
of cloud computing promises
even greater capabilities.

The United States still has
the lead in several indicators of
research productivity, but the
trend lines are raising concerns,
said David. In 2008, for the first
time, more than half of the pat-
ents granted by the U.S. Patent
and Trade Office were awarded
to companies outside the United
States. Surveys conducted rou-
tinely by the National Venture
Capital Association indicate
that venture capitalists intend to
increase investment IN Asia and
other areas and perhaps reduce

venture capital investments in the United States. “You can argue that
the baseline still isn’t bad. We have a robust VC investment community.
But again, I think it is important to look at the trends.”

A recent National Research
Council survey of six nations—
Brazil, China, India, Japan, Russia,
and Singapore—found that these
nations are generally pursuing a
two-pronged strategy in science
and technology.2 One part of their
strategy is to focus on areas where

science and technology can address particular needs in their respec-
tive countries. The other part is to build their economies in the global
marketplace, thereby capturing a greater share of the benefits of scien-
tific and technological advances. Most sobering, according to David, is a
50-year road map for science and technology published by the Chinese

2 National Research Council. 2010. S&T Strategies of Six Countries: Implications for the United
States. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press.

In 2008, for the first time, more
than half of new U.S. patents
were awarded to companies
outside the United States.

Ruth David

Ruth A. David, president and CEO, Analytic
Services Inc.

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PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY �

Academy of Sciences. “Having been captive inside the Beltway for a few
too many years, it is hard to plan 50 days ahead, let alone 50 years.”

Wisdom, expertise, and talent are everywhere and cannot be con-
fined by national borders. The transnational nature of science and tech-
nology creates a delicate balance of challenges and opportunities for the
United States. For example, businesses increasingly view cross-border
exchanges as collaborative opportunities, not just as competitive threats.
Although U.S. universities in the past have relied on foreign students
coming to the United States to study, today they have international col-
laborations, international campuses, or both. Similarly, U.S. industries
today have both manufacturing plants and research facilities abroad.
The world may not yet be flat, said David, but it is certainly flattening.

THE GLOBAL YOUTH MOVEMENT IN TECHNOLOGY

In past generations, people tended to create their identities from
what they wore, what they owned, or what they controlled, said John
Seely Brown, a visiting scholar and advisor to the provost at the Uni-
versity of Southern California. Today’s young people increasingly forge
their identities from what they create and what they share. “This is a very
positive fact,” said Brown. It helps to explain the do-it-yourself (DIY)
and do-it-together (DIT) movements that are sweeping across the world.
It also influences how people think about and use technology, no matter
what their age.

Brown described four aspects of the global youth movement in tech-
nology. The first is the open-source movement, which extols the virtue of
producing software and other goods and making them freely available.
More than half the web sites in the world are running the open-source
programs Linux and Apache, said Brown. One day shortly before the
forum he logged onto an open-source site and saw that in a single day
the site had provided 2.8 million downloads of computer code, had
uploaded 4,200 contributions of code, had posted 1,200 forum entries,
and had tracked 576 programming bugs. “This is a worldwide move-
ment,” he said.

Brown said that when he was an undergraduate he became well
known for writing code that more or less worked, but no one could
figure out how it worked. “That doesn’t cut it today,” he said. “It’s the
other way around.” Young people write code today so that it can be read
and improved by others. In doing so, they build social capital and per-
sonal reputations. In this way, the open-source movement has become

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� GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY

a new mechanism for creating
and expanding technology.

The second phenomenon
Brown discussed is the union of
amateurs and professionals. The
world amateur comes from the
Latin amare, meaning to love,
and amateurs are applying their
love of particular topics in pro-
fessional settings. For example,
a simple $3,000 Dobsonian tele-
scope, when combined with a
charge-coupled device sensor,
has power equivalent to the
200-inch telescope at the Palo-
mar Observatory in California
when it began operating in
1949. Furthermore, small tele-
scopes around the world are
now networked, and amateurs
are watching the sky 24 hours a
day and making new discover-
ies. As an example, Brown cited
the 2-meter Faulkes telescope
on Maui that can be accessed

through the Internet by schoolchildren, museums, and amateurs. He also
mentioned the rediscovery by two schoolchildren of an asteroid that had
been previously tracked and lost. “Those two kids are scientists for life,”
he said. “The joy of finding something like that and getting national, if
not international, recognition for it was really tremendous.”

The third trend Brown cited is a return to making things. Events
such as Maker Faires (http://makerfaire.com/) and facilities such as
Fab Labs (http://fab.cba.mit.edu/) are engaging students in the design
and construction of technologies. “You learn by being tinkerers,” said
Brown. “Most of us in this room probably grew up that way.”

Finally, Brown discussed engagement in imaginative worlds made
possible by technologies. Children who have become fans of the Harry
Potter books do not just read them. They contribute to fan sites, con-
struct mythical worlds, and fill in the back stories of characters. On
one site, 386,000 stories have been archived. Global discussion groups

John Seely Brown, visiting scholar and advi-
sor to the Provost at University of Southern
California and the independent co-chairman
of the Deloitte Center for the Edge.

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PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY �

have children reading and writing
outside of school in ways that were
not possible before. Similarly, mas-
sive multiplayer games like World
of Warcraft bring together millions
of participants to create new and
imaginary worlds. When Brown
recently logged onto a World of
Warcraft site, 15,000 new ideas had
been posted in a single day. “These
kids are producing knowledge amazingly fast,” he said. “You might
think [this is] for fun or for wasting time. But these kids are creating
ideas and learning from each other at blinding speed that is very much
mimicking the speed at which knowledge is being created in the scien-
tific community. They are used to constantly absorbing and adding back
to that knowledge on a day-by-day basis.”

THE ONE LAPTOP PER CHILD REVOLUTION

Of the approximately 1.2 billion children in the world, half live in
poverty, and 100 million do not go to school at all. “I don’t mean they
drop out of school at some point,” said Nicholas Negroponte, founder
of the One Laptop per Child Association Inc. and founder and chairman
emeritus of the Media Lab at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “A
hundred million don’t go to first grade.” Adding underserved children
who are not counted in this statistic could double that number.

One way to counter the tremendous education gap in the world is
to build schools and train teachers, and this clearly needs to be done.
The One Laptop per Child project takes a complementary approach. It
has designed a very low-cost, low-power, interconnected laptop and has
distributed these laptops in large numbers to children. This approach is
based on five principles:

1. The laptops are designed to be owned and used by children.
2. Laptops are geared for children aged 6 to 12, although they can

also be used by younger or older children.
3. Every child and teacher in a given region should have a laptop.
4. Laptops are designed to provide an engaging wireless network.
5. Laptops should be able to use free and open-source soft-

ware tools.

“ . . .kids are creating ideas
and learning from each
other at blinding speed that
is very much mimicking the
speed at which knowledge is
being created in the scientific
community.”

John Seely Brown

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� GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY

Uruguay is the first country
to have achieved digital satura-
tion. Every child in the country
aged 5 to 15 has a laptop with
an e-mail address, and WiFi
connectivity is widespread.
“The transformation is extraor-
dinary,” said Negroponte. “The
children are teaching their par-
ents how to read and write.
Older kids are teaching their
younger siblings. There is anec-
dote after anecdote.”

Providing a laptop for every
child changes the nature of
teaching. In places like the city
of Gaza, where the foundation
has also been working, teaching
had been very rigid, with chil-
dren lined up in perfect lines
and afraid to ask questions in
case they might be wrong. With
laptops, the children can exert
responsibility over their own
learning. Truancy rates that

were 20 to 30 percent have dropped effectively to zero.
The idea of one laptop per child is not new, said Negroponte. When

he was working in Cambodia in the early 1980s, the laptops children took
home at night were often the brightest light source in the village. Some
of the earliest laptops designed for wide distribution in the developing
world were built with a crank on the side to provide power. Although

the crank proved to be impractical,
“a lot of people remember it, and
I still today meet people who say,
‘Where’s the crank?’ because every-
body remembers the pencil-yellow
crank.”

These laptops connected remote
villages to the world. If each of 100
interconnected laptops contained

“The children [with laptops]
are teaching their parents how
to read and write. Older kids
are teaching their younger
siblings. There is anecdote
after anecdote.”

Nicholas Negroponte

Nicholas Negroponte, founder and chair-
man of the One Laptop per Child nonprofit
organization.

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PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY �

100 different books, a village could have immediate access to 10,000 books,
more books than most elementary school libraries have. Furthermore, the
laptops can be connected outside the village to millions of books.

Private enterprise can provide some of these resources, but not
all. “When I wake up in the morning, I ask myself one question,” said
Negroponte. “Will normal market forces do [what I’m doing today]? If
the answer is yes, then stop. So everything we have done and everything
we plan to do is what normal market forces will not do.”

THE COMING ERA OF SYSTEMS THINKING

The U.S. semiconductor industry has captured more than half of
the $250 billion worldwide market and exports more than 80 percent
of what it …