Chapter 14:
(20 pts) 1.
Part a. notes a “running” clock. Build a table with 3 columns:
1) your random draw,
2) the time between calls, and
3) the running time. So if the first random draw returns a time between calls of 2 hours, then the first row will have a running time of 2. If then the second random draw returns a time between calls of 5 hours, then the second row has a running time of 2+5 = 7 hours. Continue this way until you have a running time >= 72 hours which is 3 days.
Use the third column in table 14.3 (p.651) as the random numbers.
The column starts with 76, 23, 47, 25, …
Chapter 14:
(40 pts) 2.
On the following page solve this with simulation, using the first 20 values from the fifth column of random numbers in Table 14.3. The column starts with the numbers 45, 19, …, 75. You will need to use the distribution to create your bins, then use the random numbers to make random draws to come up with an expected value for operating the resort according to the simulation, and compare that with the leasing option. Explain why the simulation EV is different than the EV calculated above.
Chapter 14:
(40 pts) 3.
You will need three random numbers to draw for each simulated trial – one each for the sales volume, price, and variable cost. That single trial provides simulated data for a month, which will either break even or not. Simulate 20 months.
Use these as your random numbers to draw from:
Brian Lambert, PhD CIS 3320 – 003 Analytics II Spring 2021
[email protected] 4/18/2021
Rand V10, 97, 42, 80, 98, 96, 53, 83, 70, 76, 52, 100, 27, 1, 12, 16, 8, 68, 51, 81
Rand P11, 58, 11, 82, 9, 27, 35, 9, 47, 37, 60, 26, 91, 54, 97, 90, 13, 74, 84, 67
Rand CV4, 63, 42, 14, 98, 94, 65, 20, 19, 18, 57, 20, 28, 14, 50, 14, 50, 43, 35, 72
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